In the current climate heating event, sealevel rise, unlike atmospheric temperature, is an indirect effect. Sealevel rise is the effect of a plethora of causes. These twin factors complicate, and make more uncertain, the prediction of sealevel rise. Since global heating began in the 20th century, in contrast with atmospheric temperature rise, sealevel rise, while constant, has been restricted to less than 0.1 metre. This “nothing to see here” situation, despite the rate being geologically rapid, has lulled the world into a false sense of security. New understandings of Antarctica in the past five years tell us that sealevel rise will most likely accelerate, in a stepped trajectory, unpredictably, and possibly soon. Catastrophic collapse of parts of West Antarctica, and sealevel rise of several metres in the next century are quite likely.

These major fractures are the next generation of icecap cliffs. They may presage one (or two) tipping points: (1) Being over 100 metres high they may be in a tensile fracturing regime of self-perpetuating calving: Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). (2) They may also
be in the critical grounding zone of land icecap and conjoined sea icecap underlain by shallow seafloor, in unstable equlibrium creating self-sustaining melting: Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI). This critical topology is invisible to researchers except via geophysics.

Kids’ Spoiler Alert: Santa’s home and job are at risk if the grownups keep acting like children.

Adult Spoiler Alert: be very afraid of kids acting like adults – they might do you out of a job.

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